Investment – BartonHeyman http://bartonheyman.com Fri, 29 Mar 2019 10:10:41 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.8.14 World Update: Japan’s Denso unveils $1 bn investment in US for electric cars http://bartonheyman.com/world-update-japans-denso-unveils-1-bn-investment-in-us-for-electric-cars/ Mon, 09 Oct 2017 13:27:36 +0000 http://bartonheyman.com/?p=3847 […]]]> Japanese auto supply giant Denso announced plans Friday to invest $1 billion to expand its US operations to focus on technology for automotive safety and electric vehicles.

The investment is expected to create 1,000 new jobs at Denso’s facility in Tennessee, according to the company.

“This is an investment in the future of Denso, and also the future of transportation. We are seeing dramatic shifts in the role of transportation in society, and this investment will help position us to meet those changing demands,” said Kenichiro Ito, chairman of Denso North America and chief executive of Denso International America.

Denso’s move comes amid a growing trend by global automakers to shift to electric vehicles and new connected technologies for automobiles.

Denso last month announced a partnership with fellow Japanese group Mazda to develop electric vehicles.

At the 2016 Consumers Electronics Show, Denso unveiled its system of vehicle to vehicle (V2V) communication designed for accident avoidance and reducing congestion.

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Article Update: Stocks-10 Effective Ways to Pick Better http://bartonheyman.com/article-update-stocks-10-effective-ways-to-pick-better/ Mon, 14 Aug 2017 10:31:51 +0000 http://bartonheyman.com/?p=2850 […]]]> How do you pick stocks that are likely to beat the market?

When it comes right down to it, the answer is simple.

Invest only in stocks that treat you well and let you sleep peacefully at night.

And just how do you do that?

Well, the answer varies a bit from person to person, but here are 10 specific tactics that help you identify businesses that satisfy both criteria.

 

  1. Avoid complicated companies

Stick to companies that you understand. Even better, buy only companies whose products you use regularly.

Shoprite, for example, has a straightforward business model. It sells groceries through a large network of supermarkets. Kenya’s Safaricom sells wireless phone service and operates a popular mobile payment platform, M-pesa. Dangote Cement, makes … you guessed it … cement.

Understanding a company’s business model and products gives you a clearer view of what factors contribute to its success.

 

  1. Don’t stray from established businesses

It can be tempting to buy that fast-growing community bank or to participate in that hot IPO that’s all over the news. Resist the urge.

Investing in unproven companies can yield out-sized returns, but they often also come with a high risk of catastrophic loss.

Focus instead on companies that are known quantities, that have proven they can prosper through good economic times and bad. They may not make for scintillating conversation material at parties, but they stand a better chance of building your wealth over time.

 

  1. Sniff for scandal

Have company executives been charged with paying bribes? Has a parent company been caught running a Ponzi scheme? Does it dump toxic sludge into waterways?

Malpractice like this is insidious, and it can take years for a company to live it down. Distrust of such companies will weigh on their share prices like a ton of bricks. There are better places to put your hard-earned money to work. You don’t need to be associated with businesses like these.

 

  1. Revenue growth is crucial

If a company isn’t selling an increasing amount of stuff to an increasing amount of people, there’s trouble on the horizon. A company can boost earnings for a year or two by cutting costs and becoming more efficient, but if sales are stagnant, profits will eventually stagnate, too.

Look for companies with long-term revenue growth rates that exceed your local rate of inflation. That’s 7% in Kenya, 18% in Nigeria, and 6% in South Africa.

 

  1. Insist on profitability

Take a look at a company’s profit history. Has it reported negative earnings at any point in the past five years? If so, do not buy the stock unless you thoroughly understand the reason for the loss.

Everybody loves a good redemption story, but turnarounds and cyclical stocks are tough to analyze. Stick with a business that earns money year after year, and sleep better at night.

 

  1. Look for consistent dividends

Good companies rarely reduce their dividend, and great companies boost them every year. When you buy a stock, you become a part owner of that company. As an owner, a mature, healthy company should be able to pay you a portion of its earnings in the form of a dividend every year.

If the amount of this dividend is cut, or remains stagnant for several years, there better be a very good explanation for it. If there isn’t, there are plenty of other, more profitable places to invest your money.

 

  1. Watch out for debt

Companies with heavy debt loads suffer disproportionately during tough economic times and have fewer resources available to them when expansion opportunities arise. What’s more, they also have less flexibility to issue dividends or buy back shares.

KenolKobil is one formerly debt-strapped company that got serious about paying off its loans in 2013. The stock’s stellar performance since then speaks for itself.

 

  1. Shun high P/E ratios

The price-to-earnings ratio is a blunt instrument, but like a hammer, it’s nevertheless one of the most valuable metrics in your analytical toolbox.

As a general rule, stocks that are priced at a low multiple to their most recent twelve months of earnings (below 15x), will outperform stocks with high P/E ratios. The market expects stocks with high P/E ratios to grow their earnings at high rates. And high expectations often end in disappointment.

 

  1. Take CEO share purchases seriously

Who knows more about a business than its CEO? Pretty much, nobody. So, if you see a CEO buying a large amount of shares of her own company, you can be pretty confident that good things are in store for the stock. Calgro M3’s Wikus Lategan and James Mworia at Centum are two CEOs who’ve recently made big purchases of their own shares.

 

  1. Beware rising share counts

When a company increases its number of shares outstanding, it’s rarely good news for shareholders. Issuing share options to employees dilutes existing shareholders’ stake in the business. Acquisitions funded by the issuance of shares dilute shareholder value and expose the company to the risk of a new venture. Rights offers dilute shareholders who don’t have additional cash to invest in the business, and indicate that the company that may be over-leveraged. And bonus share issues are essentially an attempt to weasel out of paying a dividend.

 

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Africa Update: Markets Resilient http://bartonheyman.com/africa-update-markets-resilient/ Mon, 14 Aug 2017 08:24:26 +0000 http://bartonheyman.com/?p=2840 […]]]> So far in 2017, the big macro news in Africa is what has not happened. With the election of Donald Trump in November, the conventional wisdom of many global investors was that faster growth and higher interest rates in the U.S. would punish emerging and frontier market stocks and currencies. However, this has not happened. African currencies are doing relatively well this year and most African markets have delivered a positive return so far in 2017, in both local currency and USD.

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa appears to be rebounding off the very tepid 1.6% number recorded in 2016, which was the slowest rate of growth in the last twenty years. The World Bank currently expects growth of 2.6% for 2017. While many of Africa’s smaller countries are growing at a substantially faster rate than 2.6%, it is the slow growth of sub-Saharan Africa’s three largest economies—those of South Africa, Nigeria and Angola—that are weighing on the continent-wide growth figures. We expect countries that depend more on domestic demand to drive their economies, such as Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Senegal to post growth 2 or 3 percentage points higher than the Continent as a whole, just as they have for the last few years.

We do not see a major rebound in energy and commodity prices on the horizon and continue to invest with this view in mind. We expect consumer-facing industries to outperform the materials and energy sectors across sub-Saharan Africa for the balance of the year.

Our Strategy

Our Africa strategy continues to have its largest exposures to assets in South Africa and Kenya. In the second quarter our South Africa holdings, as a whole, held their value while our Kenyan stocks, as a whole, posted strong performance in the quarter.

In recent months, the Kenyan economy has been negatively affected by the upcoming election (the ballots are still being counted as I write this letter). Businesses have put off spending ahead of the election, fearing a repeat of the ethnic clashes which following the 2007 election. Economic growth in Kenya was only 4.7% in the first quarter—a number that would be very respectable elsewhere but which is down from 5.9% growth in the first quarter of 2016. Growth in lending of 3.3% was also lower in the period, due not just to election jitters but also the interest rate caps instituted by the government in August of 2016. With caps on the interest rates they can charge borrowers with higher credit risk, many banks are simply choosing not to lend to such customers.

Our sense is that many foreign investors have been on the sidelines ahead of the election. This has been to their detriment, however, as Kenyan stocks have done very well in recent months. We view political uncertainty as a standard feature of the African landscape and are unlikely to reduce our positions except in exigent circumstances. Such uncertainty can often produce significant price swings, and we area always on the lookout to add to our favorite holdings at a discount. We invest with a long-term horizon and expect the Kenyan companies in which we have invested to thrive in the long run regardless of which party comes to power in the 2017 election.

We increased our positions in the following five equities during the quarter: Kenya Commercial Bank(Kenya), Kenya RE (Kenya), Jubilee Holdings (Kenya), Octodec Investments, Ltd. (South Africa) and Howden Africa (South Africa).

We added one new holding during the quarter: State Bank of Mauritius Holdings (SBMH.SEM), which trades on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM), located in Port Louis, Mauritius. Mauritius is one of the most economically developed countries in Africa and has a fairly high standard of living. SBM, along with Mauritius Commercial Bank, is one of the two largest financial institutions in the country. SBM is the largest retail bank and is now making efforts to expand into East Africa. The company bought Fidelity Commercial Bank in Kenya and is bidding to buy Chase Bank in that country as well. The stock fits our value parameters nicely: its dividend yield is more than 5% and it trades 18% below book value.

We sold our position in EOH Holdings (South Africa) during the quarter. While the company’s financial performance has been very strong in recent years, we were unhappy and unsatisfied with the company management’s tepid and unconvincing response to allegations of corruption regarding contracts secured with the South African government.

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